摘要
本文采用中国1998—2012年数据,运用数量经济方法,在单整检验的基础上,进行Johansen协整检验,并进行VAR模型动态分析。结果表明,货币供应量、贷款利率和国民收入对中国房地产价格存在着不同的影响,即货币供应量增加会迅速推动房地产价格上涨,国民收入增加会轻微推动房地产价格上涨,贷款利率的提高会持续降低房地产价格。
Using annual data from 1998 to 2012, adopting integration and Johansen cointegration method test, The author uses VAR model to analyze the dynamic connection. The empirical results show that the money supply, loan rate and national income have different influences on the price of China＇ s real estate, that is, the increasing of the money supply will rapidly promote the price of real estate, the increasing of national income will slightly pro- mote the price of real estate, the rising of loan rate will have a continuous lower influence on the price of real es- tate.
出处
《首都经济贸易大学学报》
北大核心
2013年第5期21-28,共8页
Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business
