基于灰关联理论与因子分析理论预测男子篮球运动的发展趋势

The Comprehensive Analysis of Tactical Index System on Nearly 3 times of World Men's Basketball Games

运用文献资料法、录像观察法和数理统计法,从近3次男子篮球世界性大赛各球队的比赛成绩、技术指标情况研究男子篮球运动的发展趋势以及中国队与世界强队的差距。结论:近3次男子篮球世界性大赛的攻防技术指标可以分为5类因子,根据关联分析可知有7项指标与得失分率、比赛名次关系最密切,运用因子分析法、关联分析法构建篮球技术指标的体系能够量化评价各球队的攻防技术能力。男子篮球运动的发展趋势,注重了投篮得分的能力和效率,投篮技术、身体对抗和心理稳定性有机结合;加强了队员的进攻侵略性,力量与技术、高度与速度有机结合;提高了球队进攻的效益,战术配合简约易行;强化了防守的有效性,多种防守战术灵活多变的使用。中国队必须重点提高体能和身体对抗能力,提高投篮能力、进攻效益,从技术、体能、意志、战术方面提高防守质量。

By using methods of document literature, video observation and mathematical statistics, the paper researches the trend of men＇s basketball development and the differences between China＇ s team and the world best teams by ana- lyzing each team＇s result of game from nearly 3 times of world men＇s basketball games and conditions of technique and tactics inde~ Conclusion： the offense and defense technique and tactical index of nearly 3 times of world men bas- ketball game can be divided into 5 types of factors. According to association analysis, it can be found that 7 indexes are bound up with the rate of gain and lose and game＇s result. By using factor analysis and relational analysis to build up basketball＇s system of technique and tactical index can quantize ability to assess the offense and defense technique and tactic of each team. The Men basketball sport tends to attention for organic combination of the ability and effi- ciency to get scores, the shoot skill, the physical confrontation, and the mental stability. It strengthens organic com- bination of team＇s aggressive, the power and technique, height and speed. Improves the efficiency of attack and sim- plifies the tactical cooperatio~ Intensifies the defense effectiveness and the flexible use of diverse defense tactics. Chi- na＇s team must pay more attention to enhance the abilities of physical energy and confrontation, improve shoot ability and attack efficiency and guarantee the defensive quality in technique, physical energy, willpower, and tactics.