近四十年季度天气趋势预报研究与实践的进展

SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS OF RESEARCHES AND PRACTICE IN SEASONAL WEATHER TREND FORECASTING THROUGH 40 RECENT YEARS

本文总结了作者近 4 0年在季度天气趋势预报研究与实践的历程和主要进展。六十年代提出并利用中高纬和低纬前期大气环流特征与夏季江淮流域旱涝趋势的隔季遥联制作预报 ,80年代初进一步考虑外在因子影响改进为“前期物理成因综合相似法”:1968～ 87这 2 0年长江中下游夏季旱涝趋势预报取得较好成绩。随后的预报实践表明 ,因全球气候异常增长 ,预报难度有所增大。1995年开始建立一种短期气候系统多变因子的物理—统计预报方法 ,近 4年 ( 1996～ 1999)我国中东部地区夏季旱涝趋势预报和用历史资料的 5年事后预报 ( hindcasts)共 10 3例的高技巧评分 ( 0 .4 8～ 0 .59)表明 ,该方法具有相当推广价值 。

Present paper summarizes the course and main progress of the author's researches and practice in seasonal weather trend forecasting through 40 recent years.In 1960s,the author suggested and made seasonal predictions by using the seasonal teleconnections between preceding characteristics of atmospheric circulation in extratropical/tropical zones and the summer rainy trend of Yangtze/Huaihe Basins.In early 1980s,this method was improved by an analogous method to consider the conbined imfluences of preceding physical causes,good scores had been obtained in seasonal predictions on summer drought/flooding trend predictions of the mid-lower Yangtze Basins during the 20 years of 1968-1987.Following practice reveals the increasing difficulty of seasonal predictions due to the rising trend of global climate abnormalities.A physical-statistical method for variable factors of short-term climate system has been formed since late 1995 with considerable success during 4 recent years(1996-99) by applying this method to the predictions on summer drought/flooding trends of central-east China.The high skill scores (0.48-0.59)of seasonal predictions of large sample(seasonal predictions of above 4 years with hindcasts of other 5 years:N=103) manifest that this method is worthy of the applications to all regions of China for different seasons and other extratropical regions with weaker oceanic forcing in the Northerm Hemisphere.