我国大规模储能技术发展预测及分析

Forecasting and Analysis on Large-Scale Energy Storage Technologies in China

介绍了大规模储能技术发展和应用现状,并建立大规模储能技术发展需求预测模型,进行储能比例、价值规模和社会需求预测,其中价值规模包括工程和辅助服务2方面,社会需求包括环境和社会岗位2方面;最后基于大规模储能技术经济性分析提出其发展方案。分析结果表明：到2020年,我国大规模储能产业装机容量达到33.6~80 GW,储能比例为1.74%～4.13%,且工程和年辅助服务价值规模将分别达到147.8~1603.2亿美元和243.6亿~580亿美元,减排CO2243.8亿~3619.2万t。

The domestic and international development and application status quo of large-scale energy storage（LSES） technologies is introduced in this paper.A forecasting model is established for development demand of LSES technologies and a prediction is made of the installed capacity rate,economic values and social demand.The economic values include engineering and ancillary services,and the social demand includes environment and social jobs.A development program is proposed based on LSES techno-economic analysis.The analysis results show that the installed capacity of LSES in 2020 will reach 33.6~80 GW with the storage rate of 1.74% to 4.13%,and the economic values of engineering and ancillary services will reach up to 14.78 billion to 160.32 billion dollars and 24.36 billion to 58 billion dollars,respectively,with a benefit of reducing CO2emission of 2.43-36.19 million tons.