灰色系统理论在巷道围岩变形预测中的应用研究

Study on the Application Grey System Theory in Roadway Surrounding Rock’s Deformation Prediction

巷道围岩稳定性对煤层开采安全进行具有重要保障意义。从变形分析角度出发,以灰色系统理论为变形预测模型基础,构建灰色系统预测模型,以国内某煤矿采动影响阶段巷道两帮移近量的4个实测数据为初始值进行了变形预测。结果表明:灰色系统预测模型预测精度较高,在矿山巷道围岩变形预计中具有较好的推广价值。

Roadway Stability has an important guarantee significance on the coal mining safety.From the angle of deformation analysis,and taking the gray system theory as the base of deformation prediction model,this paper constructs a gray system’s prediction model,and taking four measured data of the convergence amount of roadway’s two sides in mining influence stage in a domestic coal mine.As the initial value,makes he deformation prediction.The results show that the gray system’s prediction model has higher accuracy,and possesses better promotion value in the prediction of surrounding rock’s deformation of coal mine’s roadway.