中国发电行业生命周期温室气体减排潜力及成本分析

Analysis of Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Potential and Cost for China's Power Generation Sector

基于相关规划目标,分析2020年中国发电行业8类减排发电技术的生命周期温室气体减排潜力、减排成本和单位减排成本。结果表明：1）发电行业共能产生2099.0~2070.3 MtCO2e的减排量,其中水电和核电的减排潜力最大,两者占总潜力的62.90%~63.34%;2）发电行业总减排成本为3307.6亿元,其中水电的发电成本最低,为783.0亿元,生物质发电的成本最高,为1687.5亿元;3）发电行业的平均单位减排成本为157.6~159.8元/tCO2e,其中水电和核电的单位减排成本最低,分别为104.3~104.8元/tCO2e和13.2~13.3元/tCO2e,天然气发电的最高,为958.8~1598.0元/tCO2e。总体而言,水电和核电的单位减排成本较低且减排潜力大,未来应重点发展这两种发电技术。

Based on the relevant planning objectives,life-cycle emission reduction capacities and costs of eight categories of emission reduction technology of China＇s power sector are analyzed.The results indicate that the total emission reduction capacity amounts to 2099.0–2070.3 MtCO2e.The emission reductions generated by hydropower and nuclear power are the biggest,accounting for 62.90% to 63.34% together.The total cost is projected to be 330.76 billion RMB.The lowest cost,by hydropower,is 783.0 billion RMB,while the highest,by biomass power,is 168.75 billion RMB.The average unit cost of reducing emissions is between 157.6 to 159.8 RMB/tCO2e.Hydropower and nuclear power have the lowest unit abatement costs,104.3– 104.8 RMB/tCO2e and 13.2–13.3 RMB/tCO2e respectively,while natural gas power has the highest,958.8–1598.0 RMB/tCO2e.Overall,the hydropower and nuclear power generate relatively low unit abatement costs and big emission reduction capacities.Thus,China should focus on the development of these two types of new energy in the future.