行为金融视角下我国上市公司现金股利政策解释

Analysis of the Cash Dividend Policy of Chinese Public Companies from the Perspective of Corporate Finance Behavior

上市公司为什么要支付股利?美国学者Baker和Wurgler从行为公司财务角度出发提出了股利迎合理论,该理论放宽了MM股利无关论中关于"市场有效性"的假设,认为如果市场是有效的,则现金股利政策应该由企业特征决定;如果市场不是完全有效的,则理性的管理层会为了提高股价,迎合股东对股利不断变化的偏好。结合股利的迎合理论,融入新近出现的股利的生命周期理论的思想,基于沪深两市2000-2010年中国A股上市公司财务数据,对我国上市公司现金股利支付倾向与我国投资者的现金股利需求的关系进行了实证研究。同时,引入现金股利溢价指标,研究了公司股利支付意愿与现金股利溢价的关系。研究表明:对处于同一生命周期的上市公司而言,投资者的现金股利需求对上市公司的股利支付倾向有较显著影响,但其影响程度不及盈利能力以及股利政策连续性指标强;面对更高的股利溢价时会更倾向于支付现金股利。研究证明,股利迎合理论对我国资本市场的现实情况具有较强的解释能力。

Why do public corporations pay dividends？ Traditional theories, such as tax theory, information model and agent hypothesis, cannot give a thorough explanation of the dividend puzzle. In 2004, a new explanation of dividends was brought forward by Baker and Wurgler, which was called the dividend catering theory of corporate finance behavior. It relaxes the ＂market efficiency＂ hypothesis in the MM dividend irrelevance theory, and suggests that if the market is efficient, the cash dividend policy should be decided by corporate characteristics. If it is not the case, rational managers will cater to shareholders＇ preferences for the changing dividend in order to improve stock price. Due to different samples and testing indicators of corporate characteristics selected by scholars, analysis of the cash dividend policy with the dividend catering theory has led to different conclusions. Therefore, in this paper we further explore the research in the field of dividend distribution by combining dividend catering theory with the unique institutional background in China. In addition, we integrate the new life-cycle theory of dividend payout into the research. From a brand-new perspective, in this paper we have investigated whether the dividend catering theory has explanatory power and how much power it possesses for the cash dividend policy of public companies in China. Our research adopts Logistic regression and multiple linear regression models to study how investors＇ behavior affects the cash dividend policy of listed companies in. China by integrating catering theory and the new life-cycle theory of dividend payout, grouping data of dividend allocation according to RE/TE under group-controlling life-cycle stages of business, and making full use of 2000 - 2010 financial data of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges. This article is divided into two parts from the perspective of behavioral finance. In the first part, it adopts the Logistic model to study the relationship between the tendency to pay cash dividends, and the cash dividend demands of investors. The conclusion is that the investors＇ demand for a dividend is shown as a dividend discount. That is, investors pay a relatively high price for non-payers. For those companies in the same life cycle, investors＇ demand for dividends will, to a certain extent, have an impact on the tendency to pay cash dividends of listed companies. When the listed companies are more mature, such an impact will be more significant. The second part of this article addresses the relationship between a willingness to pay dividends and the cash dividend premium. The conclusion is that the dividend premiums of listed companies are mostly negative. That is, investors are willing to pay acomparatively high price to buy the stock of non-payers. Whichever stage the life cycle of the enterprises is in, the correlation between a cash dividend premium and willingness to pay dividends is strongly positive. For mature and stable companies, the degree of correlation will be increasingly significant. Further study also shows that the dividend policy of listed companies in China is mainly affected by the characteristic variables of firms, including profitability and dividend policy continuity as two relatively important factors. Our empirical study has shown that the dividend catering theory has relatively strong explanatory power for the dividend policy of listed companies in China.