北美致密油勘探开发现状及影响分析

The status and impact of tight oil in North America

北美是全球已探明致密油资源量最丰富的地区,且美国和加拿大对致密油的勘探开发理论认识全面、技术研发相对成熟,是全球实现致密油商业化开采的两个典型国家。本文通过梳理北美地区致密油勘探开发现状及发展前景,从资源供需、行业发展、地缘政治和国际油价等四个方面分析了其影响,认为致密油在北美的迅速发展提高了美国的原油产量,展示了其成功开发的必备条件,也改变了世界能源供需的版图;但其他国家受地质条件和配套设施等制约,尚无法快速实现商业化,致密油在全球的产量不足以改变国际油价的走势。

Having the world's largest proven tight-oil reserve, North America plays a key role in worldwide exploration and production of tight oil. As the two key countries to have made big progress in tight-oil E&P, the U.S and Canada are the only two countries to have achieved commercial production. The prospects for tight oil in North America are driven by resource supply & demand, industry development, geopolitics and oil prices primarily. The success of tight-oil E&P in North America, especially in the U.S, has greatly contributed to the growth of US oil production, and maybe to changing the world's energy consumption mix. Because of complicated geological conditions and poor infrastructure, tight oil production isn't yet commercializable in countries outside the US and Canada. And it will accordingly have little influence on oil prices.