绿色的迷茫:清洁能源路在何方?

Where's the road to clean energy?

彭博新能源财经公司(Bloomberg New Energy Finance)首席执行官迈克尔.利布莱克(Michael Liebreich)先生应邀与北京国际能源专家俱乐部专家交流时指出,2012年全球清洁能源投资有所下降,但前景并不悲观;美国、欧洲清洁能源投资下滑,中国独占鳌头;清洁能源发展在短期内受许多不利因素影响,长远将受到非常规油气供应增加、能效提高和新能源成本降低等三大趋势以及传统与新型不确定性因素的影响;全球化石能源消费的峰值预计在2030年左右来到;清洁能源投资战略需要重新定义能源"ROI",即从单纯追求投资回报率ROI(Return on Investment),转向注重投资项目的抗冲击性(Resiliency)、技术与投资机会的可选择性(Optionality)、使清洁能源系统变得更智能(Intelligence)。与会专家在交流中指出,信息技术渗透于能源系统,将是清洁能源发展的重大推动力。但能源与信息具有不同的物理特性,不能期待能源技术获得同信息技术一样的迅速发展,也不能期待能源网络像信息网络一样高速低价而不受距离限制地传输能源。

At the Beijing Energy Club's Experts Exchange, Bloomberg New Energy Finance's CEO, Michael Liebreich, pointed out that thanks to China the outlook for global green energy is not pessimistic despite its 2012 decline especially in the United States and Europe. Clean energy development is beset by many unfavorable factors in the short term, but is ultimately driven by three big trends, namely increasing unconventional oil and gas supply, greater energy efficiency, and cost reduction in new energy, besides the usual and some new uncertainty factors. Global energy consumption is expected to peak at about the year 2030. Clean energy investment strategy needs to be based on an enriched energy 'ROI', namely shifted from pursuing ROI as simple Return on Investment to emphasizing the resiliency of the investment project, the technology's and the investment opportunities' availability as options, and the superior intelligence embodied in clean energy systems. During the discussion period the experts attendingthe meeting pointed out that the penetration of information technology into the energy system will be a major driving force for clean energy development. But the physical properties of energy and information are quite different; so, we can't expect the development of energy technology to be as fast as of information technology, and we cannot expect the energy network to transfer energy with the high-speed and low-price, without distance limitations, of information networks.