害虫预测建模中的因子综合

Factor integration in modeling of insect pest forecasting

根据因子的作用和意义 ,考察了西太平洋副热带高压的 5个因子的综合效应与江苏省通州市稻纵卷叶螟二代高峰日蛾量间的关系 (1 973～ 1 997) ,结果显示这一综合因子具有 72 %的预报准确率 。

The function relation between the five factors of the West Pacific subtropical high pressure at 500 hPa and the adults numbers of rice leaf roller at generation Ⅱ peak day in Tongzhou City,Jiangsu Province during 1973?1997 was studied,according to their function and biological significance.The results showed that the adults number at peak day was forecasted with about 72% accuracy by using the factors of the West Pacific subtropical high pressure at 500 hPa.It also indicated that integration of the selected factors is feasible.