我国货币政策效应及边界检验研究

Empirical Study on Monetary Policy Effect and Boundary

货币政策通过制造超预期通货膨胀对真实经济产生影响,但其政策效应具有条件依存性和不可持续性,其政策边界为自然失业率。运用货币政策调控经济的有效性取决于对政策边界的清楚把握。然而,在充满摩擦的现实经济中自然失业率水平无法直接定量和观测。考察通胀和就业的协整关系可以有效地充当替代指标。通过考察二者协整关系可以有效测定货币政策的有效性,通过VAR建模进行脉冲响应分析有助于确定实施宏观货币政策的时机。

Through creating the inflation which is more than exceeding expected, monetary policy is able to influence the real economy, but the influence is conditional-dependent and unable to last. The boundary of the policy is natural rate of unemployment. The effectiveness of monetary policy in stimulating economy depends on clear grasp of policy boundary. However, in real economy full of frictions, natural rate of unemployment can＇ t be directly measured or observed. Through examing cooperative efficiency between inflation and unemployment, monetary policy effectiveness can be clear/y estimated. Impulsive analysis based on VAR model helps determine the timing of implementing macro-monetary policy.