宏观审慎的动态方法论基础

The Basics of Dynamic Macroprudential Methodology

本文基于宏观经济和金融运行的内在规律与逻辑,对宏观审慎的动态方法论及其理论基础进行了初步讨论。这一讨论是建立在经验事实和方法论反思基础之上的。宏观审慎必须关注动态性的核心论据在于,经济和金融系统的各种关键性参数会在动态过程中发生结构性变化,考虑这些结构性变化是防止失衡在同一个方向上过度积累的必要前提,同时也是在经济和金融体系彻底失去弹性和自我修复能力之前及时发现问题的关键。一种健全的宏观审慎理念必须关注经济动态机制中的市场结构、市场过程和市场条件。宏观审慎的动态方法论本质只能通过经济和金融系统的动态变化而被理解。

This paper provides a preliminary discussion on the dynamic macroprudential methodology and its theoretical foundation.The discussion is based on clarifications of the methodological misunderstandings of conventional economics.Macroprudential policy must pay close attention to economic dynamics as various key parameters of the price system and the economic system usually undergoes structural changes in the dynamic process of the economy.Taking these structural changes into account is a necessary prerequisite to prevent excessive accumulation of economic imbalances in the same direction,and also the key to find the underlying problems timely before the economy completely loses its flexibility and ability to repair itself.A sound macroprudential philosophy must be concerned about the market structure,process and conditions in the economic dynamic changes.The essence of dynamic macroprudential methodology can only be understood through the dynamic changes of the economic system.