经济增长、城市化与环境污染排放的联立非线性关系

The Simultaneous Nonlinear Relationship between Economic Developments, Urbanization and Environmental Pollution

城市化是EKC的形成机制之一，突出体现为资本要素在工业化和城市扩张过程中通过城市这一载体所形成的空间集聚对于经济增长和环境污染排放产生了非线性的增速效应，最终使得经济增长与环境污染之间表现出曲线式的非线性趋势，二者的相对变化具有倒u型环境库兹列茨曲线特征，而人口城镇化则没有使得消费与污染排放之间形成这种非线性趋势。笔者基于2000年～2009年省区面板数据，在联立方程体系下考察了环境、城市化与经济发展三者之间的正反馈关系。研究表明，实施环境友好型的城市化战略，特别是人口城镇化是实现可持续发展的核心举措。

Urbanization is one of the formation mechanisms of EKC, highlighted for the spatial agglomeration of capital element through the process of industrialization and urban expansion, which produces a nonlinear acceleration effect of growth and environmental pollu-tion, and makes nonlinear trends of Logistic-type growth curve between economic growth and environmental pollution. The relative changes between economic growth and environmental pollution has the characteristics of inverted U-EKC, but the urbanization does not make such a nonlinear trend between the consumption and pollution emissions. Using the system of simultaneous equations based on the provincial data from 2000 to 2009, this paper examines the positive feedback relationship among the environment, urbanization and economic development, and demonstrates that the implementation of environmental-friendly urbanization strategy is the core of achieving sustainable development initiatives.