税收优惠、社会性支出与外商直接投资——基于省际面板数据联立方程模型的研究

Tax Incentives,Social Expenditure and Foreign Direct Investment: An Analysis of Simultaneous Equations Model Based on Inter-provincial Panel Data

笔者利用我国1999年～2010年省际面板数据，实证研究了税收与FDI之间的非线性关系和社会性支出及其结构对FDI流入的影响。研究结果表明，现阶段，外资在进行区位选择的过程中并没有将税收优惠视为主导性因素，而是更重视当地的社会性支出水平；社会性支出与FDI之间存在显著的正向关系；FDI与税收之间存在倒u型曲线关系；社会性支出结构对FDI流入具有不同的影响。

Given the bi-directional mechanism between tax and FDI, this paper empirically analyzes the non - linear relationship be- tween tax and FDI, and the effect of social expenditure and its structure on FDI by constructing a simultaneous equations model to based on provincial panel data from 1990 to 2010. The result shows that foreign capital doesn＇ t regard tax incentive as a dominant fac- tor during the location selection process at present, but pays more attention to the local＇ s social expenditure level; Social expenditure has a positive effect on the inflow of FDI, and the higher is the level of social expenditure the lower the overall impact of tax on FDI; there exists an inverted ＂U＂-type non-linear relationship between tax and FDI; the structure of social expenditure has different effects on the inflow of FDI, technology and human capital expenditure has a positive effect, whereas social security and employment expenditure has an insignificant effect.