货币国际化与货币互换市场发展关系的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of Relations between Currency Internationalization and Currency Swap

笔者研究了2000年10月～2011年3月美国货币互换市场的发展与美国货币国际化程度的关系，结果发现：货币互换市场价格变动的冲击短期内对国际金融市场中美元国际化带来的冲击是难以界定的，而从长期的角度来看，货币互换市场促进了国际金融市场中以美元计价的金融产品的推出，推进了美元国际化。美元的国际化在短期内会扩大美国国内货币互换市场规模，但是，从长期的角度而言，货币国际化的推进不会对货币互换市场带来任何影响。笔者认为中国需要优先发展人民币的货币互换市场，这样，可以有效地抵御海外金融市场的冲击，以达到人民币成为国际经济往来中储备货币的目的。

This paper studies the development level of United States currency swap and the degree of currency internationalization on the basis of their data of 2000 -2011. It is found that there is an obscure explanation between the development levels of currency swap and the currency internationalization of U.S. dollar over the short term. But the currency swap gives an impetus to the dollar - denominated financial product in international financial market, and also effectively enhances the internationalization level of dollar in the longer run. On the other hand, the internationalization of dollar will expand the domestic currency swap over the short term. But from a long - term perspective, it is of no effect on currency swap. Priority should be given to developing the currency swap markets. With the development of the market, it would resist the impact of the financial market from the overseas markets, and finally achieve the aim of RMB as an in-ternational reserve in international economic relations.