对林地需求量预测方法的探讨--以陕西省为例

Discussion on Predicting Methods of Forestland Demand——A Case Study on Shaanxi Province

在分析目前占用征收林地定额编制中采用的几种主要预测方法基础上,提出了以基础建设、城乡建设、勘察采矿和其他类型项目林地需求数量为因变量,以固定资产投资、城镇人口数量、国民生产总值和时间为解释变量进行分别回归的方法,并对陕西省"十二五"期间的林地需求量进行了预测。结果表明,分类型建立回归模型可以较为合理地对林地需求量进行预测。

Based on analyzing several main predicting methods having been applied in forestland quota mak ing, this article put forward regression methods to predict forestland demand in infrastructure construc tion, urban and rural construction, mining and other projects, respectively. Through using fixed assets, ur ban population,GDP and time as interpreting factors, we predicted forestland demand of Shaanxi Province in ＂the 12th Five-Year Plan＂. The results showed that forestland demand can be predicted reasonably by using regression models in accordance with project type.