湖南专利申请量的灰色组合模型预测

A grey combination model for forecasting quantity of patent application in Hunan

针对灰色模型预测效果不佳,对其进行了改进,并对改进前后的灰色模型建立了3种组合模型。结果表明,和传统的灰色模型相比,组合模型预测结果更可靠,可应用于实践中。最后,运用方差倒数法组合模型,对2013年的湖南专利申请量进行了预测。

Owing to poor prediction result of grey model, the model is improved, then three combined forecasting model based on the two grey model are put forward.The study shows combined models have more reliable results than traditional grey model and can be used to predict the patent application quantities in Hunan. And the variance reciprocal method in combination forecasts is adopted to predict the quantities of 2013.