云南烤烟种植气候变化及其影响研究

Influences of Climate Change on Planting Flue-Cured Tobacco and Tobacco Quality in Yunnan

基于1961-2010年众多站点气候数据和烤烟生产调查,使用统计学方法和指标,结合烤烟生态学理论和相关文献,系统分析并阐明云南烤烟生长季气候变化及其影响,并提出应对气候变化影响的对策建议.结果表明,50a来云南烤烟大田生长季气候变暖显著,生长季各阶段日照和雨量的均值和标准差无显著变化,但移栽伸根期雨量和烟叶品质主要形成期日照时数年际波动大;1990年以来气候变暖明显加剧,移栽伸根期雨量年际波动突出;气候变暖、雨季开始期有所提前,与栽培技术进步和水利条件改善相结合,造成气候趋势变化对烤烟种植和烟叶品质的影响利大于弊;但极端气候(4-5月重旱、7-8月"寡照低温"、6-8月多雨洪涝等)对烤烟种植和烟叶品质影响较大,气候年际波动影响显著.把气候变化的有利影响视为发展机遇,关注极端气候、气候年际波动影响和各地气候利弊,是云南烟草业应对气候变化的重要策略.

Based on the climate data （1961-2010） from representative weather stations and investigation data of tobacco production in Yunnan, combined with the theories of tobacco ecology and literature review, some statistic methods and indexes have been used to analyze and explain the climate changes scientifically during tobacco growing season and their influences on planting tobacco and tobacco quality in Yunnan. The results show that climate warming during tobacco growing season is conspicuous （especially since 1990s）, the mean values and standard deviations of sunshine duration and rainfall during different phases of tobacco growing season has not remarkable anomaly, but much fluctuation has shown in the rainfall from trans- plant to root-extension stage and in the sunshine duration during main quality-forming stage of tobacco. Climate warming, the increase of rainfall from April to May to a certain extent and the technical progress in planting tobacco together with the improvement in water projects result jointly in the fact that climate change has done planting tobacco and tobacco quality more good than harm in Yunnan. But the sporadic extreme weathers such as heavy drought from April to May, {ew sunshine duration and low temperature from July to August and floods with being rainy in summer had many effects on planting tobacco and quali- ty of tobacco. So did the inter-annual variation of climate in part. The beneficial effects from climate change could provide planting tobacco in Yunnan with an important development opportunity.