中国区域碳强度目标设定的情景分析——以北京市为例

Scenario Analysis of China's Regional Carbon Intensity Target Setting——Taking Beijing City as an Example

运用情景分析方法，对区域碳强度目标的设定问题进行研究，以区域碳排放模型为基础，根据模型中的熏要影响因素进行情景设定，分析预测区域自身的碳强度降低情况，从而制定出适合本区域的碳强度目标。以北京市为例，设定出15种不同的发展情景，分析在不同情景下碳强度目标的实现情况。研究表明：北京市“十二五”期间的碳强度降低18％的目标是合理的；北京市2005--2020年的碳强度目标在45％～50％之间会更为合理；北京市“十二五”期间碳强度降低区间应在6％～8％之间。对北京市而言，经济增长水平的提高、产业结构中第三产业占比的提高，城市化进程的平稳发展，都能促进碳强度目标的实现。

This paper uses scenario analysis method to study the regional carbon intensity target setting. Based on regional carbon emission model, the paper firstly sets the scenarios according to the important influence factors in the model, then analyzes and predicts the carbon intensity reduction in this region, and at last sets suitable carbon intensity target. Taking Beijing city as an example, this paper sets 15 different development scenarios, and analyzes implementation of carbon intensity target in different scenarios. The result shows that 18% reduction target of carbon intensity during ＂The 12th Five-Year Plan＂ in Beijing is reasonable; a carbon intensity target between 45%-50% from 2005--2020 in Beijing will be more reasonable; the carbon intensity during ＂The 13th Five-Year Plan＂ in Beijing reduction interval should be between 6%-8%. For Beijing city, the rising of economic growth level, the rising of tertiary industry proportion in the industrial structure, and the steady development of urbanization, all can contribute to achieving the carbon intensity target.