居民生活能耗增长的分解与影响因素研究——基于习惯形成视角

Study on the Decomposition and Factors Influencing Growth of Residential Energy Consumption——From Habit Formation Perspective

伴随环境问题的日益紧迫,居民家庭生活中的能耗与碳排放问题逐渐成为今后社会关注的重要方面,通过将居民消费研究领域的习惯形成模型引入到居民生活能耗的分析框架中,计算中国居民生活能耗中的习惯量,研究中国居民生活能耗增长的影响因素。研究结果显示,中国居民生活能耗中存在较大的习惯性成分。通过将居民生活能耗中的习惯因素扣除后,基于协整方程,发现生活能耗中非习惯性成分与中国经济增长和城市化之间是同向变动关系,与工业化是反向变动关系。从降低生活能耗的角度提出了节能减排的相关政策建议,认为:居民的节能消费行为习惯的形成以及节能技术推广应用,在抑制居民生活能耗过快增长中的地位至关重要。

In the context of increasing energy shortages and environment pressures, related studies have been focusing on the energy consumption and carbon emission prohlems. This study introduces habit formation in residential energy consumption into the analytic framework of residential energy consumption, and the growth of residential energy consumption was studied by manipulating the habit formation model in consumption analysis area. Habits are proved to play a fundamental role in residential energy consumption. Among the factors influencing energy consumption, industrialization and urbanization play a very important role. An integration function was constructed to test the long-term relationship between them. Analysis shows that the part of residential energy consumption which is not decided by habits has positive relationship with economic development and urbanization from the perspective of growth rate, and negative relationship with industrialization. Based on the results above, the cultivation of energy conserving habits and the energy control technology will play a fundamental role in the control of energy growing.