基于行为运作的供应链牛鞭效应研究综述

Review of Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chain Based on Behavioral Operations

牛鞭效应对供应链效益会造成不良影响。基于完全理性人假设的传统理论,如运作管理、契约理论、博弈论和委托代理理论等,人们对牛鞭效应的成因和解决方案进行了较充分的研究。认为:牛鞭效应的主要成因在于运作管理中的四种主要因素(需求信号处理、限量供应、批量订货方式和价格波动),以及供应链协调、利益分配和供应链结构等方面存在的设计缺陷。但是没有考虑人的行为因素,即人的个体决策偏差和社会偏好也会影响供应链牛鞭效应的形成。个体决策偏差中的过度自信、有限理性以及锚定与调整,会对供应链牛鞭效应的形成产生显著影响。社会偏好中的信任也会对牛鞭效应产生重要影响。最后指出了行为因素对影响牛鞭效应的未来研究方向。

The bullwhip effect badly affects the efficiency of supply chain. Based on the rational agent hypothesis, researchers have studied causes and mitigation strategies of the bullwhip effect sufficiently from operation management, contract theory, game theory and principal theory. Demand signal processing, limited supplying, lot-for-lot orders and price volatility are the main factors that cause bullwhip eft^cl. Defects in coordination, distribution of benefits and structure of supply chain also affect bullwhip. Behavioral factors are not included in these theories. Individual decision bias and social preferences can also cause the bullwhip effect. Individual decision bias, including underestimation, overreaction, bounded rationality, anchoring and adjustment, can have impacts on bullwhip significantly. Trust, a kind of social preferences, can also cause bullwhip in supply chain management. At last, future research directions are pointed out.