基于模糊信息的突发事件应急群决策研究

Group Decision Making for Emergency Response Based on Fuzzy Information

突发事件涉及面广、决策复杂,需要多方专家的联合决策,以有效集结各方专家的知识和经验,最大限度地降低突发事件带来的损失。针对面临突发事件时各方决策专家的犹豫性及知识不完善性,提出基于残缺直觉判断矩阵的突发事件应急群决策方法。通过构造残缺直觉判断矩阵表达各方决策专家的偏好信息,利用直觉模糊加权算子集结群偏好,计算得分函数对各方案进行排序择优。通过对突发泥石流事件进行案例分析,表明该方法充分考虑了群决策专家在突发事件应急决策中的不确定性和犹豫性,在应急管理领域中的应用是可行、有效的。

As emergency is always related to broad variety and complexity, group decision is needed to minimize the loss caused by emergent events. In emergency decision making, the decision makers may hesitate and lack knowledge. In order to solve this group decision making problem, a method that is based on incomplete intuitionistic judgment matrix is proposed for emergency management. In this paper, the incomplete intuitionistic judgment matrix is constructed to convey the information of experts in group decision making. The paper aggregates individuals＇ preferences into the group preferences through IFWG operator and selects the project by use of score functions. A case in emergency decision making in mudslide disaster is introduced, which demonstrates that the proposed method takes into full account of the characteristics of the group decision makers in emergency response and the application is feasible and efficient for emergency decision.