基于数理统计的新州水库供水保证率计算研究

Research of Xinzhou Reservoirs' Water Supply Assurance Rate Calculation Based on Mathematical Statistics

近年来,遵义大力开展水利化建设,规划建设了一批中小型水库。工业化建设及经济的发展,各个水库即将投入运营发挥其应有的供水功能。因此,对水库的工程规模、兴利库容与设计供水保证率、供水能力的论证十分重要。以遵义新州水库为例,对数理统计法在水库供水保证率计算中的论证作了详细的论证。结果表明,采用数理统计法对多年调节水库供水量进行计算,不仅可以对水库的供水保证率、水库多年蓄水量变化等进行论证,同时可以检验兴利库容是否满足用水量需求。

In recent years, Zunyi city have been planning a number of medium ＆ small reservoirs to develop the irrigation construction. With the development of industrialization and economy, each res ervoir will be put into operation to exerted its water supply function. Thus, it＇s very important to demonstrate the reservoir scale, the usable storage and the design water supply assurance rate and a bility. Xinzhou reservoir in Zunyi is used as an example to expound how to demonstrate the water supply assurance rate in detail and how to calculate the water supply assurance rate with the method of mathematical statistics. The result show that using mathematical statistics to calculate the reservoir multi year Water supply regulating can demonstrate the reservoirs＇ water supply assurance rate and the change of the reservoirs＇ carry over water storage, and also can test whether the usable storage meets water needs.