强直性脊柱炎危险因素的条件Logistic回归分析

A Conditional Logistic Regression Analysis on Risk Factors of Ankylosing Spondylitis

目的应用条件Logistic回归方法筛选出与强直性脊柱炎(AS)发病有关的主要危险因素,评估各主要危险因素对AS发病的相对重要性,为优生咨询提供数据并为实现AS的一级预防提供科学依据。方法根据目前流行病学资料提供的发病率确定病例组及对照组的样本数,按1:2分组进行病例对照研究,采取调查问卷形式对患者经行调查,运用Logistic回归对数据进行统计学分析。结果通过卡方检验对各因素进行筛选,有性别、出生季节、HLA-B27检查结果、类风湿性关节炎病史、职业类型、吸烟、饮酒、新居搬迁史、体育锻炼情况等9因素与AS的发病具有统计学意义,将上述9因素进行Logistic回归分析,最后进入回归模型的危险因素为患者性别、出生季节、HLA-B27、主动吸烟等4因素。结论强直性脊柱炎发病受遗传与环境共同影响,其中,患者性别、出生季节、HLA-B27、主动吸烟是AS的主要危险因素,通过避免危险因素作用可预防AS的发生,达到优生的目的。

Objective To screen out the risk factors of ankylosing spondylitis with logistic regression analy-sis,and to evaluate the importance of risk factors to lead to AS ,also to probe into the protecting factors of AS to provide the data for evidence of the primary prevention for AS .Methods Determine the number of samples of the case group and the control group according to the incidence of AS ,to 1∶2 case-control study.Take the form of survey questionnaires to survey,then data analysis with logistic regression analysis .Results Test the various factors by chi-square,Gender, birth season, result of HLA-B27, rheumatoid arthritis history, occupation category,smoking, drinking,history of new homes relocation and sports exercise are statistically significant for the incidence of AS ,then make the Logistic regression analysis：gender,season of birth,HLA-B27,smoking are the risk factors of AS.Conclusion The incidence of ankylosing spondylitis is influenced by the genetic and environmental .Gender,season of birth,HLA-B27,smoking are the main risk factors for AS,The risk factors role can be avoided to reduce the incidence of AS for the purpose of eugenics .