生态移民过程中粮食安全与耕地压力变化分析——以宁夏红寺堡开发区为例

Analysis of Food Production and Cropland Pressure Changes in Hongsibu of Ningxia Under the Background of Ecological Immigration

运用"最小人均耕地面积"、"耕地压力指数"的概念和计算公式对宁夏红寺堡2000—2010年间粮食生产与耕地压力动态变化进行分析,并对未来15年的粮食生产、耕地变化、人口、耕地压力指数进行预测。研究结果表明:2003—2010年耕地压力指数小于1,尚无耕地压力,耕地综合生产能力较高。但是预测的耕地压力指数值显示,在2010年之后耕地生产能力出现下降的趋势,耕地压力指数随着时间的推移逐渐增加,因此还存在着区域粮食安全隐患。所以,加强对耕地和粮食生产的保护,依靠科技进步增加生产投入从而提高耕地生产率,是减轻耕地压力、保证粮食安全的关键。

The concepts and calculation models of minimum area per capita of cultivated land and the pressure index on cultivated land were used to quantitatively analyse the dynamics of the food production and cropland pressure from 2000 to 2010 in Hongsibu. And then the changes of the grain production, cultivated land, population, and cultivated land pressure index for the next 15 years were predicted. The results of the study showed that： the pressure index of cultivated land from 2003 to 2010 was less than 1, there was no pressure of cuhivated land, and comprehensive production capacity of the cultivated land was higher. But the prediction of cultivated land pressure index value showed that the trend of the cultivated land production capacity after the year of 2010 declined, cultivated land pressure index was gradually increasing with the passage of time, so, there were regional food security hidden danger. It was very important to strengthen the protection of cultivated land and grain production, it was only through the increase of investment and the progress of science-technology to raise cropland productivity so that the pressure on cropland would be reduced and the grain production was guaranteed.