双应力交叉步降加速寿命试验优化设计Monte-Carlo仿真

Optimal Design of Double-Crossed-Step-Down-Stress Accelerated Life Test Based on Monte-Carlo Simulation

为进一步缩短试验时间,实现产品可靠性的快速评定,在综合应力加速寿命试验优化方案设计的基础上,提出了一种基于Monte-Carlo仿真的双应力交叉步降加速寿命试验优化设计方法。采用Monte-Carlo对步降加速寿命试验进行仿真模拟,以正常使用应力下的p阶分位寿命渐近方差估计为目标函数,以各试验应力水平及对应应力下的试验截尾数作为设计变量,采用MLE理论进行统计分析,建立了基于仿真的双应力交叉步降加速寿命试验优化设计模型。最后通过三次样条插值拟合理论对目标函数进行拟合,降低了仿真规模,提高了试验效率,为电子装备寿命预测的加速试验方案优化设计提供技术支撑。

In order to shorten the test time and realize rapid product reliability evaluation, this paper presents a Monte-Carlo simulation optimal design method for double-crossed-step-down-stress accelerated life test based on the optimum design plan for multi-stress accelerated life test. The procedure of the test was simulated with Monte-Carlo, with the asymptotic variance estimation of the lOOpth percentile of the lifetime distribution in the using condition as the goal function, and the test censoring numbers in each test stress level as the design variables. Through the statistics analysis by MLE theory, an optimal design model for double-crossed-step- down-stress accelerated life test was proposed. Then the target function was fitted through the cubic spline interpolation theory. This method can reduce the emulation scale, improve the test efficiency, and provide a technical support for the optimal design in electronic equipment accelerated life test.