上海市建设用地与经济社会发展的空间计量经济分析

Spatial Econometric Analysis of Socio-Economic Development and Construction Land in Shanghai

利用空间计量模型对上海市镇域2009年建设用地规模与经济社会发展之间的关系进行了研究。研究表明:上海镇域的建设用地面积、GDP、固定资产投资额、总人口和城市化率都有显著的空间相关特征,说明传统计量分析低估了区域社会经济发展对建设用地增长的作用,也忽略了一个区域经济社会发展对邻近区域的建设用地的增长的"溢出效应",忽略空间相关性和异质性的传统估计模型已不再适用,须考虑引入空间变量对传统模型进行修正。空间误差模型检验表明,建设用地扩张主要受GDP和人口增长的驱动,其中总人口的影响更为显著,而固定资产投资和城市化水平提高对建设用地规模影响甚微。因此,合理把握人口增长节奏,促进农村建设用地集约水平提高,是当前缓解土地资源紧缺的有效途径之一。

This study used the spatial econometric model to analyze the relationship between the area of construction land in Shanghai county in 2009 and socio-economic development. The results show significant spatial correlations between areas of construction land, GDP, investment in fixed assets, total population, and urbanization rate. Traditional econometric analysis underestimates the influence of regional socio-economic development on growth in the area of construction land, and neglects the spillover effect of construction land growth on regional socio-economic development in adjacent areas. As well as, the traditional estimation model of spatial dimension correlation and heterogeneity is no longer applicable; therefore, the model must be modified by introducing space variables. The results of the spatial error model show that the expansion of construction land is driven mainly by GDP and population growth, in particular the total population, whereas investment in fixed assets and urbanization have little influence. Consequently, an understanding of population growth trends and an increase in the level of intensive construction on rural land are effective ways to address the current land shortage in Shanghai county.