基于水化学信息的顾北煤矿最佳突涌水水源判别模型

Optimum Discrimination Model of Water-inrush Source Based on Water Chemical Information in Gubei Coal Mine

水灾是煤矿安全生产过程中的五大灾害之一,其中突涌水水源的确定是矿井水害防治的重中之重,而突涌水水化学信息是确定突涌水水源最快捷、准确的信息。本文以淮南矿区顾北煤矿为例,基于顾北煤矿水样的水化学信息,分别建立了确定该煤矿突涌水水源的3种判别模型,即贝叶斯判别模型、模糊综合判别模型和灰色关联度分析判别模型,并通过与顾北煤矿实际水样进行比较和验证,从而得出顾北煤矿的最佳突涌水水源判别模型为贝叶斯判别模型。该研究可为矿井防治水工作提供依据。

Water disaster is one of the five major disasters in the safety production process of coal mine, and the discrimination of water-inrush source is a top priority for the prevention and treatment of water disaster in coal mine, while the water chemical information of water-inrush is the most effieien~ and accurate infor- mation in the discrimination of water-inrush source. For the purpose of quickly discriminating the source of water-inrush,this paper takes Gubei Coal Mine in Huainan Mining Area as an example,establishes Bayes- ian discrimination model, fuzzy discrimination model and gray discrimination model based on the water chemical information of the water samples and validates them by the water samples. The results show that the best discrimination model of water-inrush source is Bayesian discrimination model. The study provides a support for the decision-making of the water-inrush prevention.