国际粮食价格波动、趋势与对策研究

The international food price volatility, trend and countermeasures research

2010年上半年国际粮食价格相对稳定、下半年出现全面快速上涨,进入2011年价格仍保持大幅上涨态势。2012年因美国粮食出现严重欠收及其他粮食出口大国遭遇干旱,导致粮食价格持续出现上涨局面。美元贬值和全球流动性过剩是粮食价格波动的主因;此外,农业机械化发展、粮食减产、资本投机、粮食出口限制及发展生物质能源等也是重要因素。未来年度,国际市场小麦、大豆价格可能回落,但玉米价格均值将较2013年会继续上涨,尤其大米价格可能创出新高。为此,我国应继续加大对粮食主产区的支持力度,加大农业机械化的发展步伐,努力作好粮食市场调控工作,继续完善粮食市场监测功能,建立健全粮食市场风险管理机制。

International food prices relatively stable in the first half of 2010, the second half of a comprehensive and rapid rise, enter the price kept rising sharply in 2011. In 2012 because of the severe failure of grain and other food exporters suffered a drought, food prices con-tinue to rise. A weaker dollar and global excess liquidity is a major cause of the food price volatility; In addition, the development of agricul-tural machinery, food production, capital speculation, food export restrictions, and development of biomass energy is also important factor. The next year, the international market of wheat, soybean prices may continue to fall, but the average price of corn will from this year will continue to rise, especially rice prices may hit a record high. Therefore, our country should continue to increase support for major grain-pro-ducing areas, strengthen the development of agricultural mechanization, efforts to prepare for food market regulation and control work, we will continue to improve the grain market monitoring function, establish and improve the grain market risk management mechanism.