影响我国居民人均消费水平相关因素的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis on Related Factors Effecting the Level of Residents Per Capita Consumption

消费是拉动我国经济增长的三驾马车之一,是我国经济增长的重要推动因素,更是反映居民生活水平的重要指标。长期以来,我国存在内需不足的状况,因此分析影响我国居民人均消费水平的相关因素,是解决内需不足的必要前提。本文通过ADF检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析,实证研究居民收入、通货膨胀、政府补贴对我国居民人均消费的影响,结果表明在不同发展时期这三个要素的变动会对人均消费产生不同程度影响,并提出提高我国居民人均消费水平的理论依据和政策建议。

The consumption is one of the Troika driving Chinese economic growth ,the important constraints of economic growth and an important indicator reflecting the standard of living of the residents especially. A long time,there is insufficient domestic demand situation,so analyzing related important factors what affect the per capita consumption level of the Chinese residents is a necessary prerequisite to solve the insufficient domestic demand. In this paper, through the ADF test,cointegration test, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis will give the effect of Chinese residents＇ income, inflation and government subsidies on per capita consumption.The results show that these three elements would produce varying degrees on per capita consumption in different devel- opment period. That will propose the theoretical basis and policy recommendations to increase the level of Chinese consumer.