基于模糊综合评价的空管不安全事件预警研究

Study on Unsafe Events Early-warning in ATM Based on Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation

实施空中交通管理(以下简称"空管")不安全事件预警管理,对于保障空管系统的安全运行具有重要意义。论文通过大量实践调研建立了空管不安全事件预警指标体系,运用层次分析法对预警指标进行权重设置,采用模糊综合评价法对预警指标体系进行评价,并根据评价结果,提出相应的预警管理措施。本文将预警管理理论引入到空管安全管理研究中,实现了空管安全管理端口的前移,为空管系统实施预警管理提供了理论支持。

implementing early--warning management of the unsafe events in Air Traffic Management （shortened as ＂ATM＂） has very important significance to ensure safe running of the ATM system. The paper estabilshed the early-warning indicator system of the unsafe events in ATM according to lots of practice survey, set the weights of early-warning indicators in the light of Analytic Hierarchy Process, evaluated the early-warning indicator system based on Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation and put forward corresponding measures of early-warning management on the basis of evaluation results. The paper introduced the early- warning management theory to research of ATC safety management, moved forward the port of ATC safety management, and offered theoretica support for ATM system to implement early- warning management.