节假日对消费者购买决策的影响——来自非季节性商品的微观证据

The Influence of Holidays on Consumer's Purchasing Decision——Microeconomic Evidence from Non-seasonal Goods

区别于研究我国假日经济的已有文献,采用零售扫描数据对消费者购买行为的假日效应进行微观实证研究,主要考察节假日对非季节性商品购买决策的影响。选取具有代表意义的非季节性商品的购买记录进行统计分析,发现其需求在节假日期间并没有明显增加;进一步通过异方差probit模型分析消费者的购买决策,结果表明节假日显著影响了消费者对价格的敏感度,但不同商品价格敏感度的变化方向并不一致。厂商制定节假日促销策略时应对不同的非季节性商品加以区分。

Different from existing literatures on China＇s holiday economy, this paper conducts a microeconometric study on the effect of holidays on consumer＇s purchasing behavior, with a focus on the influence of holidays on consumer＇s decisions on non-seasonal goods. Statistical analysis on the purchase records of representative non-seasonal goods shows that the demands do not increase evidently. Econometric analysis on consumer＇s purchase decisions using heteroscedastic probit model indicates that holidays alter consumer＇s price sensitivity significantly, but the directions are not the same between different goods. Firms should make a distinction between different goods when making holiday marketing strategy.