跨境贸易人民币结算政策对外汇储备的影响——基于进出口企业的结算选择博弈分析

The Effect of Cross-border RMB Trade Settlement on Foreign Exchange Reserves: A Game Analysis on Settlement Currency Choice of Import and Export Enterprises

运用博弈论的思想和方法,结合跨境贸易结算实际,构建了人民币升贬值预期下境内企业与境外交易对手结算货币选择的多目标博弈模型,并分析了企业的结算货币选择对外汇储备的影响。研究结果表明,企业对人民币预期和结算目的的多样化,使得博弈出现多种结果,从而跨境贸易结算引起的外汇储备变动不会向单一方向发展;但不同预期引导下的进出口结算货币的不对称选择会加剧外汇储备的波动。

Based on game theory and the background of cross-border RMB trade settlement, the paper develops a multi-objective game model about enterprises＇ settlement currency choice under RMB appreciation and depreciation expectations, and analyzes the effect of their settlement currency choice on the foreign exchange reserves. The result shows that the diversification of RMB expectations and settlement purposes produces various results of the games, then changes in foreign exchange reserves caused by the cross-border trade settlement do not tend to a single direction, and yet, the asymmetric settlement currency choice of import and export enterprises does aggravate the volatility of foreign exchange reserves.