过程设备爆炸碎片抛射危害的概率研究述评

Review of the projectile hazard probability research of fragments derived from process equipment explosion

综述过程设备中由于爆炸可能产生的碎片抛射危害概率;在收集大量文献资料的基础上,对碎片的产生、抛射以及对目标碰撞过程中各不确定参数所符合的概率分布或由实验获取的相关数据进行了整理,通过选取相关的参数并经Monte Carlo法进行模拟,可以获取最终对目标的破坏概率。如果已知事故可能的后果,则可以达到对碎片抛射事故风险评价的目的;同时指出了已有研究存在的不足和缺陷,并提出了需进一步研究的内容和方向。

The hazard probability researches of projectile fragments which may be produced by process equipment explosions were reviewed. Probability distributions or related data ob- tained from experiments about uncertain parameters existed in the process of the projectile fragments generation and ejection, as well as collision between the projectile fragments and the tar- gets were organized, based on the collecting of a large number of literature materials. The eventual probability of damage to the target can be obtained by the selection of relevant parame- ters and simulating with the Monte Carlo method. Given the possible consequences of an accident, the purpose of risk assessment of accidents from projectile fragments can be achieved. The deficiencies of researches and defects in literatures which have already published were pointed out, and the contents and directions of future researches were also put forward.