基于灰色振幅关联优势分析的车辆交通事故规律研究

Research on Vehicular Traffic Accident’s Rule Based on Gray Amplitude Incidence Advantage Analysis

针对车辆交通事故统计数据少、事故原因划分模糊等特点，根据灰色系统的思想，建立车辆交通事故规律灰色振幅关联分析模型，只考虑波动振幅间的关系，消除其波动序列间隔影响。收集整理2009--2011年公安部门对某单位车辆交通事故的统计数据，根据车辆交通事故与各事故原因之间的灰色振幅关联度，计算车辆交通事故因素关联序，确定交通肇事各原因的重要程度，实现对车辆交通事故规律的客观、公正评价。

Aiming at characteristics of a few vehicular traffic accident＇s statistic data and fuzzy division of accident cause, this paper established gray amplitude relevant analytical model of vehicular traffic accident＇s rule according to gray system thoughts. The model was related to the magnitude and direction of the wave amplitude, but was independent of its sequence distance. In this paper statistical data of vehicular traffic accidents occurring from 2009 to 2011 were analyzed, the data were collected by Police Department. According to gray amplitude incidence between vehicular traffic accident and each kind of accident cause factor, we can calculate incidence sequence of vehicular traffic accident＇s factor, and confirm impor- tant degree of traffic accident＇s various reasons. It can realize objective and fair appraisal for vehicular traffic accident＇s rule.