探空加密观测资料对西南地区数值预报的影响分析

Effect of Sounding Intensive Observation Data on Numerical Weather Prediction of Southwest China

应用2013年6月逐日全国探空气象加密观测资料和常规观测资料,WRF模式模拟资料,西南地区地面自动站资料等,采用数值模拟、统计方法和天气学方法,分析了探空气象加密观测资料对数值模拟效果的影响。研究得到:(1)探空资料同化,总体上提高了降水的TS评分值,一定程度降低了降水预报空报率,提高了中雨和大雨的6h累积降水预报准确率。(2)探空资料同化主要使降水区上空位势高度增加,气旋环流减弱,从而影响降水落区和降水强度。(3)探空资料同化减小气象要素分析场和预报场的均方根误差,对高空要素预报的改进在前24h较明显,尤其是前6h,对地面气象要素预报在整个积分时段内总体呈现正效果作用。

Using radiosonde data during sounding intensive observation day by day in June 2013 ,regular observation data , prediction products simulated by WRF model, and automatic station data in south - west, effect of sounding intensive observa- tion data on numerical weather prediction has been analysed by adopting numeric simulation, statistic method and weather anal- ysis. The results show that radiosonde data assimilation increased TS score value , decreased precipitation prediction empty ra- dio and improved prediction quality of 6h accumulated precipitation of moderate rain and heavy rain in total. Radiosonde data assimilation mainly made potential height increase and cyclone circumfluence bate over precipitation areas , and finally affected precipitation location and precipitation intensity. Radiosonde data assimilation decreased root - mean - square error of analysis fields and prediction fields of meteorology elements. The improvement of upper air elements prediction of 0 - 24h were obvious, especially 0 - 6h prediction. Radiosonde data assimilation had positive effects on surface air elements prediction during almost whole integral time.