山东省气象干旱的游程时空特征分析

Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Meteorological Drought in Shandong Province Based on the Theory of Runs

针对近年来山东省干旱引起的经济及水安全问题,开展了干旱时空特征分析。基于1961—2011年共51 a逐月降水量资料,计算15个气象站点的月降水量距平百分率(Pa)并进行干旱等级的划分和统计,对山东省干旱的时间和空间特征进行了分析,采用游程理论应用Pa值分析了研究期内山东省的干旱特征并预测其未来的干旱趋势。结果表明:研究期内,山东省逐年干旱的变化规律并不明显,西南部及北部部分地区发生干旱特别是严重干旱事件的频率及未来发生的概率高于其他地区,东部沿海地区发生干旱概率较低,未来几十年内山东省不会发生连续大烈度的干旱。

Aiming at economic and water security problems caused by drought in Shandong Province in recent years, this paper analyzed the tempo- ral and spatial characteristics of drought. Based on the monthly precipitation data from year 1961 to 2011, this paper calculated the monthly precip- itation anomaly percentage （Pa） of the 15 meteorological stations and divided the drought levels, analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of drought in Shaudong Province, using the theory of runs and Pa values analyzed the characteristics of drought of Shandong Province in the study period and predicted its future drought trend. The results show that ： in the study period, the rule of drought becoming worse year by year of Shan- dong Province is not obvious ; the frequency of occurring drought, especially mote severe drought events and the occurrence probability in the future in the southwest and parts of the northern areas are higher than that in other areas; the drought probability occurring in the eastern coastal areas is low and continuous intensity drought will not happen in Shandong Province in future decades.