气候变化和人类活动对淮河上游径流影响分析

Influence Analysis of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff of the Upper Huaihe River

以淮河流域上游漯河站为研究对象,采用Mann-Kendall法、里海哈林法和滑动游程检验法对1957—2010年的年降雨量和年径流深序列跳跃变异进行诊断,结果表明漯河站年径流深和年降雨序列分别于1985年和1999年左右发生跳跃变异。根据跳跃变异检验结果,采用降雨径流关系法与累积量斜率变化率比较法定量计算气候变化和人类活动对该研究区域径流量变化的影响。综合分析结果显示:1986—1999年较前一阶段径流的减少主要因素是人类活动的影响,而2000—2010年较前一阶段径流的增多主要因素是气候的变化。降雨径流关系法与累积量斜率变化率比较法对气候变化和人类活动的水文效应定量评估结果基本一致。

This paper investigated the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change in the area above Luohe Hydrological Stalinn in the Upper Huaihe River Basin. Based on the data of annual rainfall and annual runoff, the abrupt change points were analyzed in detail using Mann-Kendall method, Lee-Heghinian method and method of test fnr sliding run. The result shows that annual rainfall and annual runoff occur jump variation in 1985 and 1999 respectively. According to the test result of jump variation, this paper adopted rainfall-runnff relationship method and comparative method of cumulative slope change ratio to quantify the influences of climate change and human activity on the study area. The compre- hensive analysis results show that ： human activity was the main influence factor of the runoff reduction during 1986 - 1999, whereas climate change is the main factor of runoff increasing during 2000 - 2010. The rainfall-runoff relationship method and comparative method of cumulative slope change ratio have approximate results in quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change.