基于非限制性向量自回归模型(VAR)的区域物流与外贸增长关系研究——以江苏省1990—2010年统计数据为经验分析

A Study of Relation between Regional Logistics and Foreign Trade Growth Based on Unrestricted VAR Model

基于江苏省1990—2010年的统计样本,借助非限制性向量自回归模型(VAR)方法考察了区域物流与对外贸易增长之间的动态关系。由协整方程对长期关系分析表明,区域物流供给与需求能力每增加(减少)1%引起对外贸易增加(减少)0.435%和0.337%;由误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解对短期动态关系作进一步分析表明,增加区域物流供给和需求能力是提高对外贸易增长的有效途径,其中物流供给比需求对对外贸易的贡献率更大。为了使区域物流发展水平与对外贸易相适应,应进一步发展现代物流业,特别是增加物流业的供给能力。

Based on 1990 - 2010 data of Jiangsu Province, increasing supply and demand of logistics each 1% will promotes growth 0. 435% and 0.337% of foreign trade in long run by the cointegration equation estimating relationship between the regional logistics and foreign trade ; Increasing supply and demand of logistics industry is an effective way improving trade growth in ]iangsu Province by error correction model impulse response function and variance decomposition model analyzing short-term dynamic relationship between region- al logistics and foreign trade. Therefore, in order to meet demand of foreign trade about logistics, local government should further develop modern logistics industry; in particular, increase the supply capacity of the logistics industry.