防洪实时风险调度模型及应用

Real－time Risk Operation Model and Its Application for Flood Control

在水库下游防护断面遭遇超标准洪水或水库遭遇超标准洪水按规划调度原则泄量将超过下游防护断面安全泄量时，提出了一种水库减免下游洪灾损失的防洪实时风险调度模型，并提出了水库防洪允许极限风险率确定的原则，可供实时选择水库泄量时使用，为决策者提供有依据的信息。还举了一应用算例，应用效果较好。

 A real－time risk operation model for reservoir flood control is presented in this paper．The model can be used to reduce and get rid of flood damage in downstream area when the reservoir or the downstream section encounters the exceeding standard floods and reservoir discharge released with the operation rule exceeds safety discharge of downstream section．This paper also develops the principle of defining allowed limited－ratio of reservoir flood control．The proposed model and principle can be used for choosing reservoir discharge at real－time operation and can provide decision－makers with useful information．A case study shows how the model works．