基于网络效应的竞争性产品微观扩散研究

Competitive product diffusion at the level of individuals based on network effect

竞争性产品扩散是成熟市场的重要表现,网络效应的存在不仅改变了传统的扩散模式,而且对个体采纳行为有重要影响.但是以往研究竞争性产品扩散侧重于宏观层面的扩散速度和扩散效果,忽略了微观层面个体的个性以及社会交互等特点对产品扩散的影响,因此需要基于网络效应从个体微观层面研究竞争性产品扩散的特点.首先构建了基于个体间交往关系的直接网络效应函数和基于多种互补产品协同作用下的间接网络效应函数,然后,个体将计算自己当前时刻的收益以及下一时刻的预期收益,并根据预期社会化效益满意决策机制确定下一时刻的产品选择.通过仿真对扩散系统进行研究,结果表明:直接网络效应和间接网络效应对竞争性产品扩散具有阶段性影响;在小世界网络的社会交往结构中竞争性产品扩散效果最好;个体人数分布、偏好、对环境的判断都对竞争性产品扩散有重要影响.

An important feature of mature markets is the diffusion between the competitive products. Network effect changes the traditional diffusion pattern, and has an important impact on individual choice behaviors. Previous studies focus on the rate and degree of diffusion at the level of aggregation, ignoring the social interactions and characteristics at the level of individuals. Based on the network effect, this paper discusses competitive product diffusion from the individual perspective. Firstly, a direct network effect function based on the social interactions is constructed, and an indirect network effect function is developed which reflects the cooperative effect of multiple complementary products. Secondly, individuals calculate their own profit at the current time and their expected profit at the next time. At last, they choose the right product for the next time according to decision-making mechanism of expected socialized benefit satisfaction. Simulations are used to study the diffusion system, and the result demonstrates that： the direct network effect and indirect network effect have distinct roles at different stages; the small world network is the optimum condition for competitive product diffusions; individual number distribution, personal preferences and individuals＇ judgment to the market have significant effects on diffusion.