大型石油企业合作竞争战略博弈分析

Analysis of Giant Oil Companies’Cooperative and Competitive Strategy Game

为了确保我国能源安全,石油企业近年来坚持"走出去"战略,积极开拓海外市场,寻求与资源国及跨国石油公司的合作。在我国大型石油企业参与国际石油市场竞争的过程中,引入博弈论分析石油企业之间的合作竞争战略选择,可以帮助参与者作出最佳策略选择,同时有效降低合作竞争风险。文章基于资源、技术、市场3个不同要素在不同假设的基础上,运用不同的博弈模型,对大型石油企业合作竞争战略选择进行了分析。利用完全信息静态博弈模型,分析了基于资源的合作竞争战略博弈,得出"合作,合作"为唯一稳定均衡;利用完全信息动态博弈模型,分析了基于技术的合作竞争战略博弈,得出"合作,合作"为唯一均衡;利用不完全信息静态博弈模型,分析了基于市场的合作竞争战略博弈,得出"合作,竞争"、"竞争,合作"为可能达成的均衡,不存在唯一稳定均衡。

To secure China’s energy supplies, the petroleum companies have adhered to the 'go-world'strategy in recent years, actively expanding overseas market and seeking cooperation with the resources nations and multinational companies. With involvement in international oil market competition, China’s giant oil companies have introduced the game theory to analyze the cooperative and competitive strategic options among oil companies so that the involved participants can make the best strategic options while lowering the risks for cooperation and competition. Based on the different assumptions of resources, technology and market, this article uses the different game models to analyze the cooperative and competitive strategic options facing giant oil companies. It also uses the complete information static game model to analyze the resources-based cooperative and competitive strategic game, drawing the conclusion that 'cooperation, cooperation'is the sole stable equilibrium. It uses the complete information dynamic game model to analyze the technology-based cooperative and competitive strategic game, drawing the conclusion that 'cooperation, cooperation'is the sole equilibrium. With the incomplete information static game model, it analyzes the market-based cooperative and competitive strategic game, drawing the conclusion that 'cooperation, competition'and 'competition, cooperation'are likely to reach equilibrium without unique stable equilibrium.