群体性突发事件的建模与仿真

The model and simulation of mass unexpected events

以辽东湾海蜇捕捞引发的群体性突发事件为例,采用Netlogo仿真工具对群体性突发事件的发生、发展和恢复3个不同阶段进行仿真实验.仿真结果表明,当海蜇捕捞群体性突发事件爆发之后,在渔船数量和管理措施基本不变的情况下,出现了群体性事件年年发生的动态平衡状态.从海蜇捕捞专项管理的角度来看,提高政府合法性和加大对违规捕捞海蜇的惩罚力度,与单纯加大执法警力具有相同的管理效应.遏制违规捕捞群体性突发事件的再次发生,需要从加强海蜇捕捞专项管理的合法性和力度出发,打破海蜇捕捞群体性突发事件的动态平衡状态,最终实现海蜇资源恢复和可持续利用的目标.

In the case of the rhopiloma esculentu capture in Liaodong Bay,this paper adopts netlogo tool to do the simulation of mass unexpected events involving three phases of occurrence, develop- ment and termination. The conclusions are that the mass unexpected events once break out, the dy- namic balance will be easy to reach, when the number of fishing boats and management regulation don^t change. From the view of special management of rhopiloma esculentu capture,improvement of the government＇s legitimacy and the boost of penalties have the same effects with the boost of law enforcement police management only. To curb the mass unexpected events for rhopiloma esculentu capture happening again,it needs to enhance the government＇s legitimacy and the boost of penalties of rhopiloma eseulentu capture,and to break the state of dynamic balance. Then the goals of rhopilo- ma esculentu resources restoration and sustainable usage will be reached.