新疆资本市场发展与产业结构升级关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

The Research on the Relationship between the Capital Market Development and Industrial Structure Upgrade in Xinjiang——Based on the Empirical Analysis of VAR model

本文根据1994-2012年的样本数据,建立VAR模型,并运用脉冲响应函数分析方法,实证研究了资本市场发展对新疆产业结构升级影响。研究表明,目前新疆资本市场发展缓慢,资本市场的发展对第一产业和第三产业的融资几乎起不到任何作用,尽管资本市场的发展对第二产业起到一定的促进作用,但对第二产业的正向影响并不显著。最后,本文以新疆产业结构升级为目标,提出了资本市场今后发展的主要思路。

The paper establishes VAR model and uses impulse response function to empirically study the effect of the capital mar- ket development on the industrial structure upgrade in Xinjiang based on the sample data from 1994 to 2012. The study indicates that at present the capital market develops slowly in Xinjiang, and the capital market development almost has no effect on financing of the primary industry and the tertiary industry. Although the capital market development promotes the secondary industry in certain degree, the positive effect on the secondary industry is not significant. Finally, the paper puts forward the main ideas of the future development of the caoital market aimine at uozradine industrial structure in Xiniiane.