对进出口企业货物贸易顺入顺差差异的微观分析

The Micro Analysis on the Difference between Surplus under Trade in Goods and Surplus Based on the Balance of Payment Statistics of Import and Export Enterprises

本文以6户陕西省重点进出口企业的进出口、贸易信贷数据为基础,分析得出:虽然贸易信贷造成了单个以及全部企业货物贸易项下跨境资金流和货物流在时间上的不匹配,但并不能完全解释顺入顺差之间的差异。造成货物贸易顺入顺差差异的成因有贸易信贷这一必然因素,也有货物流资金流时间差、数据上传滞后、特殊贸易方式等偶然因素,并且偶然因素长期以各种各样的形式存在。因此,本文提出,要提高货物贸易顺入顺差的匹配性,需要标本兼治,一方面从操作层面强化主体监管、完善统计;另一方面,调节汇率和利率,扩大汇率的双向波动性,改变人民币单边升(贬)值预期,压缩市场主体的套利空间。

Based on the data of import, export and trade credit of six important import and export enterprises in Shaanxi province, the paper finds that although trade credits cause the time mismatch between cross-border capital flow and goods flow under trade in goods of single and all enterprises, trade credits cannot explain the difference between surplus under trade in goods and the surplus based on the balance of payment statistics. Besides the inevitable factor of trade credits, there are plenty of accidental factors, such as time discrepancy of goods and capital flow, the delay of process, special trade modes etc. which will exist for a long time in the various forms. Therefore, the paper puts forward that to reduce the difference, some measures should be taken such as strengthening supervi- sion of enterprises, improving balance of payments statistics, adjusting the foreign exchange rate and interest rate, expanding the two-way volatility in the foreign exchange rate, changing the expectation of unilateral rise （fall） in value for RMB, and compressing the arbitrage space of market participants.