中国各地区粮食生产的影响因素分析

A Factor Analysis about the Grain Production between Different Provinces in China

粮食安全和粮价问题关系到国计民生。根据1997-2010年中国大陆省级行政区的粮食播种面积排名和粮食产量排名的关系所做的分析表明,各地粮食产量主要受制于粮食播种面积,对1988-2011年26个省份的粮食生产函数分析验证了此结果。那些地广人稀的省份,如黑龙江、内蒙古、江西等省(区),机械化程度对粮食生产的影响显著;沿海发达省份如山东、辽宁等省的有效劳动对粮食生产的影响显著。人力相对缺乏的新疆有效劳动对粮食生产的影响显著。此外,其他大部分省(区)的粮食产量主要还是受制于粮食播种面积、化肥施用量、有效灌溉面积所占比例和成灾面积比例等土地类生产因素。

Grain security and grain prices are very important to our living. This paper analyzed the rank of the arable land, the sown-area and the quantity of the tradable grain between the 26 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of China. The author found that the crucial restraint about the grain product is the sown area. The grain production function analysis based on the 1988--2000 provincial data verified this conclusion. Furthermore, the level of mechanization is also significant in Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia and Jiangxi province which are lacking of labors, and meanwhile efficient labor is significant in Liaoning, Shandong and Xinjiang. Except for these above areas, the sown areas, fertilizer, irrigation and disasters are significant in other areas in the mainland of China.