基于风险分析的三江平原灌区多水源联合调度方案优化决策研究

Study on the Water Joint Operation Scheme Optimization in Sanjiang Plain Irrigation Area Based on Risk Analysis

针对三江平原水稻灌区因缺水而造成的地下水超采问题,以开采地下水量最小为目标建立多水源联合调度模型,并利用matlab工具箱进行求解,确定满足不同约束条件的灌区多水源联合调度方案。同时,对方案运行存在的不确定性因素进行风险考究判别、风险损失估计与计算,以实现风险情况下的方案优选,确定该区多水源联合调度的优化方案,其结果可为决策管理部门提供参考。

In order to mitigate lack of water caused by excessive exploitation of groundwater in Rice irrigation area of Sanjiang Plain,multi-resources scheduling model was developed with regard to a goal of minimizing exploitation of underground water,and the matlab toolbox was used to solve,satisfy different constraints of multi-resources scheduling scheme in irrigation district.At the same time,the risk identification,risk estimate and sophisticated calculation for uncertainty factors in the presence of program running were carried out in order to realize the risk case selection,and the combined water scheduling optimization scheme of the zone was determined.The results can be used as a reference for decision making management.