基于WRF模式的渤海海面风的预报与订正

FORECAST AND CORRECTION OF THE BOHAI SEA SURFACE WIND BASED ON WRF MODEL

采用数值模式是客观预报渤海海面风的1种重要手段,本文基于WRF模式及其3DVAR同化模块构建了1个渤海海面风场预报系统。虽然利用3DVAR同化了大量陆地观测数据,但是由于海上观测数据严重匮乏造成初始场的海上部分不够准确,导致数值预报的海面风往往与真实风场存在一定差距。因此利用渤海沿岸实际地面观测数据,采用逐步订正方法对海面预报风场进行了订正,以塘沽、绥中与龙口三站进行检验,结果表明三站订正后风速与风向保证率皆提高了9%左右,分别达到了0.82与0.72,订正后的海面风场更接近实际。

Numerical model is a primary technique for objective forecast of the Bohai Sea surface wind, and a forecast system for the Bohai Sea surface wind is designed in this study based on the WRF model and its 3DVAR data assimilation method. Although amount of observed data over land are assimilated, lack of observed data over sea cause to the inaccurate initial field, which results in the differences be- tween simulated sea surface wind and observed wind. So the simulated sea surface wind is corrected with successive correction method using the observed wind along the offshore of the Bohai Sea. Verifi- cation is done with three stations of Tanggu, Suizhong, and Longkou, and the results show that the guarantee rates of speed and direction of corrected wind are about 8% better than original numerical wind, and reach about 0.82 and 0.72, respectively. The corrected wind is closer to the real.