随机故障、蓄意攻击与城乡路网空间稳定性——以武汉城市圈为例

SPATIAL STABILITY OF URBAN-RURAL ROAD NETWORK UNDER THE EFFECT OF RANDOM FAILURES OR ATTACKS——A CASE STUDY OF WUHAN METROPOLITAN AREA

基于1995～2010武汉城市圈城乡路网空间数据，综合运用复杂网络理论、动力系统理论及现代控制理论等多学科的方法和理论，采取随机故障和蓄意侵略两种攻击策略及多种评价指标，通过建立动力学演化模型并进行模拟仿真，揭示武汉城市圈城乡道路网的空间稳定性：（1）因分布相对均匀，节点连接随机多样，在面临随机攻击时，武汉城市圈城乡路网体现出“类随机性”，抗攻击能力强；（2）高度节点、高介数节点失效时，引致的城乡路网效率和结构变化程度不一，高介数节点失效往往更容易导致路网破碎和效率降低（形成众多子图）；（3）桥梁和高速成为整个圈域城乡路网的关键边，不同桥梁或高速路段相对网络稳定性的重要程度不一样：圈域中心城区的大桥和二桥、南北向的京港澳、大广高速成为整个城乡路网的关键路径。

Along with progress of complex network research, network security and stability problem have become the hot spots which attracted more attention during the past several years. The transport network is a complex open system which is comprised of road system, flow system and management system. At present, the complex research of transport network mainly centralizes in road network complex elementary theory （research direction and system）, the topology of road network （scaling, small-world, reliability and centricity） as well as the kinetics process of road network. However, few efforts have been devoted to the road stability based on road network evolution mechanism. Transportation network is the material condition and prerequisite for forming the metropolitan area network system,and is also the main channel of material flow, energy flow and information flow which plays an important role in the socio-economic development of metropolitan area. Therefore, without a doubt, its stability is the key to harmonious development of metropolitan area space. Based on the spatial data of urban-rural road network in Wuhan Metropolitan Area and with the integrated use of multidisciplinary methods and theory （such as complex network theory, dynamic system theory, modern control theory and so on）, this paper established a dynamic evolution model to reveal the spatial stability of urban-rural road network by adopting two attack strategy （random failure, deliberate aggression） and a variety of evaluation index. （1） Similar to ER random network, when facing random attacks, the resistance ability of urban-rural road network was strong, because its distribution was relatively uniform and the nodes were connected randomly. （2） The response of urban-rural road network to the failure of high degree nodes or high betweenness nodes were different. When high betweenness nodes were removed, the urban-rural road network was always easier to be fragmental and inefficient （forms numerous subgraphs）. （3） Bridges and highways became the vital edge of the entire circle urban rural road network. Certainly,their relative importance for network stability was not the same. The two bridges（Wuhan Changjiang River Bridge and the Second Changjiang River Bridge in Wuhan） and the two NS-trending highways（Daqing-Guangzhou and Beijing-Hongkong） in the Central City Zone of Wuhan Metropolitan Area became the critical path of the whole urban-rural road network. Overall, the response of the network efficiency of urban-rural road network on random failures and attacks was significantly different. Holistic nature of road network was close to BA Scale-free network, robust yet fragile,that is, the road network was strong when faced with random failures, but was relatively fragile under the deliberate attack.