基于人口约束的北京市固定资产投资研究

A Research on Fixed Assets Investment in Beijing Based on the Population Constrain

人口数量以及增长情况会对区域的经济发展产生重大的影响,研究基于人口约束下的固定资产投资对区域未来调整投资结构、制定适当投资政策具有重要意义。本文在分析北京市人口发展现状和存在问题基础上,选取1992-2011年北京市人口和固定资产投资额的相关数据,研究人口与固定资产投资之间的关系模型,预测了基于人口约束的北京市固定资产未来投资规模。本文认为北京市严峻的人口问题决定了固定资产投资不能依赖人口拉动的粗放型增长方式,提出了相应的解决对策和建议。

Population and its growth will have a significant impact on regional economic development. Research how fixed assets investment under the constraint of population affects the future adjustment of regional investment structure and the establishment of appropriate investment policies is important. This paper analyzes the population development status and problems of Beijing, and based on that, selecting the population and investment in fixed assets in 1992 -2011 as the data, to study the relational model between population and fixed asset investment and to predict the scale of investment in fixed assets in the future under the constraints of the population in Beijing. Finally the serious population problem in Beijing determines that the fixed assets investment cannot rely on the extensive population growth driving by population, and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are given.